The European Union stands at a crossroads as projections hint at a profound demographic transformation looming on the horizon. Fresh estimates from Eurostat illuminate a sobering reality: by the turn of the century, the EU could witness a notable 6% decline in its population, equivalent to a staggering 27.3 million fewer inhabitants by the year 2100.
Following a tumultuous period overshadowed by the disruptive fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, the EU’s population, in a testament to resilience, embarked on a path of recovery starting in 2022. Bolstered notably by the influx of Ukrainian refugees fleeing Russia’s aggression, the population swelled to an estimated 451 million individuals at the onset of this year.
However, the latest report from Eurostat underscores a pivotal juncture in the EU’s demographic trajectory. Projections suggest a transient peak at 453 million individuals in 2026, followed by a gradual decline, bottoming out at an anticipated 420 million by the close of the century. These projections are meticulously crafted based on intricate analyses of fertility, mortality, and migration patterns across the continent.
As the gaze shifts towards the future, a closer examination of the 2100 population pyramid paints a stark picture of a society in flux. The share of children, young adults, and the working-age populace is poised for decline, while those aged 65 and above are set to constitute an increasingly substantial proportion of the population, accounting for a notable 32% by 2100, compared to 21% in 2022.
The demographic narrative extends beyond the EU, with recent headlines spotlighting China’s first population decline in six decades. Faced with a plummeting birth rate and an aging populace, China grapples with the looming specter of a demographic crisis, portending profound economic repercussions both domestically and globally.
Turning our focus back to Europe, fertility rates emerge as a critical barometer of demographic vitality. With not a single EU country boasting a fertility rate surpassing the replacement threshold, the average rate across the EU stood at 1.53 live births per woman in 2021, signaling a persistent downward trend.
However, amidst this demographic ebb, certain EU member states stand as beacons of resilience, defying the overarching decline with population growth fueled in part by migration. Notable among these are Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland, France, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, and Iceland.
Yet, as the population ages and life expectancy climbs, Europe confronts a paradigm shift in its demographic composition. The share of those aged 65 and above is already on the ascent across EU member states, outpacing trends observed in China. By 2100, projections anticipate a significant surge in this demographic cohort, with those aged 65 to 79 expected to account for 17% of the EU’s total population, marking a notable increase from 15% at the dawn of 2022.
As Europe grapples with the realities of an aging populace and declining fertility rates, proactive policy interventions are imperative to navigate the complex socio-economic implications of this demographic sea change. From pension reform to healthcare infrastructure, the road ahead demands strategic foresight and concerted action to steer Europe towards a sustainable demographic future.